Great post. I’ve been thinking through a lot of this and it was extremely helpful to see that you actually did a lot of then analysis for me, appreciate it. In as far as tracking down the typically drop in earnings during recessions and inflationary recessions, etc.
I’m putting together a post right now to think through the possibility of a market bottom — spoiler, I don’t think we are there yet. However, part of the piece is to consider that a recession and “another leg down” now seems to be consensus — and obviously when something is consensus it becomes a much less desirable framework for determining future outcomes. If everyone thinks we are in or near a recession, maybe the market can price in the recession before it even begin — instead of a 6-9 month lead the market shifts to a 9-18 month lead.
Great post. I’ve been thinking through a lot of this and it was extremely helpful to see that you actually did a lot of then analysis for me, appreciate it. In as far as tracking down the typically drop in earnings during recessions and inflationary recessions, etc.
I’m putting together a post right now to think through the possibility of a market bottom — spoiler, I don’t think we are there yet. However, part of the piece is to consider that a recession and “another leg down” now seems to be consensus — and obviously when something is consensus it becomes a much less desirable framework for determining future outcomes. If everyone thinks we are in or near a recession, maybe the market can price in the recession before it even begin — instead of a 6-9 month lead the market shifts to a 9-18 month lead.
Who knows?
Anyway — great piece. Thanks for posting!